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Commentary to the Central Statistical Office and Eurostat data on GDP growth in the second quarter of the year 2020

14.08.2020

According to a quick estimate of the Central Statistical Office, the seasonally unadjusted GDP decreased 8.2% in Q2 2012 per annum. This result exceeds the prognoses of the Ministry of Economic Development and the market consensus, which were estimated at -8.6%. In comparison to the previous quarter, the second quarter of this year brought an actual decrease in the GDP by 8.9%. The presented values are preliminary and may be subject to review - the final and detailed data will be presented on 31 August.

Data, Analysis, Comment

The achieved results must be regarded as relatively favourable in a difficult period of crisis caused by the pandemic. The data constitutes a proof that the Polish economy is based on strong foundations and is resistant to disorders, including those of an external nature. Government support for companies and employees also plays an important role, which helped to maintain the potential of the Polish economy. The results of the Polish GDP, along with the monthly data showing a significant slowdown in the decline in industrial production and retail sales, as well as a significant improvement of attitudes (e.g. PMI for industry), allow us to remain optimistic with regards to further improvement in our economic situation.

In comparison to the economies of other EU countries, Poland remains a leader with regards to the GDP dynamics. According to Eurostat, in the second quarter of 2020, the Polish GDP pen annum declined by 7.9%. (seasonally adjusted) and this was the third best result among the EU countries documented in the data, positioning Poland after Lithuania (-3.7%) and Finland (-5.2%). The result of the Polish economy is much better than that of the entire EU (-14.1%) and the Eurozone (-15%).

The major EU economies have been affected by deep GDP declines (y/y). In Germany, GDP decreased by 11.7%, in Italy by 17.3%, in France by 19% and in Spain by 22.1%. The other V4 countries also recorded significantly poorer results - in Slovakia, GDP decreased by 12.1%, in the Czech Republic by 10.7% and in Hungary by 13.5%.

However, in comparison to the first quarter of 2020, the GDP in the EU has decreased by 12.1% and by 11.7% in the entire Eurozone. According to Eurostat, Poland noted a decrease by 8.9%

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