• On 5 September 2025 rating agency Fitch announced a decision about revision of outlook to negative from stable, keeping Poland’s credit rating unchanged at the level of A-/F1 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in foreign currency and A-/F1 for long and short term liabilities in local currency.

The revision of the outlook reflects the following key rating drivers:

substantial fiscal slippage in 2024 and 2025, with deficits likely to average 6.7% of GDP, increased political challenges to implement fiscal measures, and, in the agency’s opinion, lack of a credible fiscal anchor, which will likely complicate Poland’s ability to deliver meaningful fiscal consolidation before the next regular parliamentary elections in 2027. Fitch expect wider fiscal deficits leading to a steeper rise in general government debt towards 68% of GDP by 2027.

Fitch forecasts the deficit to increase further to 6.9% in 2025 (more than double of the ‘A’ median of 2.9%), before easing slightly to 6.8% of GDP in 2026, above the government’s budget projection of 6.5%,and further to 6.3% in 2027.

Fitch projects general government debt to increase to 59.3% of GDP in 2025 from55.3% in 2024 and 49.5% in 2023. Fitch forecasts government debt/GDP to continue to increase in the years after, absent of additional fiscal consolidation measures.

In the Agency opinion, the start of the President Karol Nawrocki’s term highlights the likely challenges for the coalition government to implement policy. Fitch noticed, that since its inauguration in early August, the President has vetoed various bills, publicly stated his opposition to tax increases and put forward tax cut proposals. In an environment of elevated political polarization, as evidenced in the May presidential election, the influence of domestic political considerations on policy choices is likely to increase ahead of the next parliamentary elections, due by October 2027. This could reduce the room to implement politically challenging measures before 2028, including those supporting fiscal consolidation.

Due to agency Poland's rating is supported by a large, diversified and resilient economy, record of sound macroeconomic policies anchored by EU membership, solid external finances and a higher and more stable government revenue base than peers. These are balanced against wide fiscal deficits, rising government debt, and lower income levels and governance indicators relative to peers.

Real GDP growth continued in 2025 with growth averaging 3.3% in 1H25, driven by strong domestic demand. Fitch forecasts growth of 3.2% in both 2025 and 2026, above the projected peer median of 2.3%, as the impact of US tariffs on the eurozone growth outlook will be largely mitigated by domestic consumption and pick up in absorption of EU funds (about 1% of GDP in 2025 and 3% in 2026). Nevertheless, the implementation of reforms required to maintain EU funding will remain critical to maintaining strong GDP growth.

The current account (CA) position was balanced in 2024, compared to a surplus of 1.8% of GDP in 2023, due to a shift to a trade deficit driven by higher goods imports amid increased domestic demand and lower exports, particularly in machinery and transport equipment. Fitch forecasts a modest CA deficit of around 1% in2025-2027, comfortably covered by net FDI inflows averaging 2% of GDP. Poland’s external buffers continue to strengthen with international reserves forecast to reach USD249 billion (EUR214 billion) by end-2025, thus covering 5.3 of projected current external payments. Following public and private sector deleveraging, Poland's net external debt fell from 37.1% of GDP in 2013 to a net external creditor position of -1.7% in 2024 ('A' median -6.0%). Fitch expects Poland to further enhance its net external creditor position in the medium term.

Rating prospects

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade are the following: increased confidence in Poland’s ability to implement fiscal consolidation measures sufficient to stabilise general government debt/GDP ratio over the medium term.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade are:

failure to stabilize general government debt/GDP over the medium-term, for example due to inability to implement fiscal consolidation measures, lower growth and/or significant increase in government financing costs; materially lower medium-term growth prospects, for example, due to an erosion in competitiveness or weaker external environment.