• On 27 February 2026 rating agency Fitch announced a decision about keeping Poland’s credit rating unchanged at the level of A-/F1 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in foreign currency and A-/F1 for long and short term liabilities in local currency.
• Rating’s outlook remained at a negative level.

According to Fitch Ratings, Poland’s ‘A-’ rating is supported by a large, diversified and resilient economy, the benefits of EU membership, credible monetary and exchange rate policies, and a solid external position compared with ‘A’-rated sovereigns.

These strengths are balanced against high fiscal deficit, rapidly rising government debt, and lower income levels. The Negative Outlook reflects the risk of persistently high deficit leading to a further increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio, in the absence of a credible fiscal consolidation plan and amid political tensions limiting policy effectiveness. Fitch estimates that the general government deficit increased to 7.0% of GDP in 2025 (above the ‘A’ median of 2.9%), while public expenditure reached around 50% of GDP. Military spending rose to about 3% of GDP in 2025 (from 1.6% in 2021).

Fitch forecasts the deficit to narrow to 6.5% of GDP in 2026 and to 6.2% in 2027, with limited room for further consolidation. The agency projects general government debt to rise to around 70% of GDP in 2027 (from about 59% in 2025) and to continue increasing over the medium term.

Real GDP growth reached 3.6% in 2025, and the 2026 forecast has been revised up to 3.6%, supported by inflows of EU funds and lower inflation. Growth is expected to ease to 2.9% in 2027, with downside risks prevailing.

Rating prospects

An upgrade or revision of the Outlook to Stable could result from increased confidence in the authorities’ ability to implement effective fiscal consolidation measures sufficient to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the medium term.

A downgrade could occur in the event of reduced confidence in the government’s ability to stabilise public debt, for example due to a failure to implement additional consolidation measures, weaker growth prospects, or a significant increase in financing costs.