• On 21 August 2026 rating agency Fitch announced a decision about keeping Poland’s credit rating unchanged at the level of A-/F1 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in foreign currency and A-/F1 for long and short term liabilities in local currency.
• Rating’s outlook remained at a negative level.

According to Fitch Ratings, Poland’s ‘A-’ rating is supported by a large, diversified and resilient economy, the benefits of EU membership, credible monetary and exchange rate policies, and a solid external position compared with ‘A’-rated sovereigns.

The Negative Outlook reflects the absence of a credible fiscal consolidation plan, domestic political challenges and risks of pre-election fiscal easing, that has reduced Fitch's confidence in the authorities' ability to deliver additional fiscal measures and contain high fiscal deficits.

The government presented a package of tax measures, which introduces a new PIT rate, increases PIT income thresholds and raises CIT for the largest enterprises. The government expects the package to be fiscally neutral. We expect the deficit to narrow marginally to 6.7% of GDP in 2027, above our February forecast of 6.2%, and consider there are risks of additional pre-election spending.

Revenue will be constrained by weaker economic growth, a lower CIT rate for banks and limited scope for offsetting measures due to likely presidential vetoes. Higher healthcare, defence and interest spending will constrain deficit reduction. Domestic fiscal rules, particularly the debt break, currently provide a weak anchor and are unlikely to be binding before 2029 while Poland has been under EU's Excessive Deficit Procedure since 2024. In the absence of clear consolidation strategy and likely difficult post-election environment, agency forecast the fiscal deficit of 6.1% in 2028.

Fitch projects gross general government debt will rise markedly to 72.7% of GDP by 2028 ('A' median: 58.1%) from 59.7% in 2025, driven by persistent primary deficits and borrowing to cover off-budget spending.

Agency expects real GDP growth of 3.3% in 2026, and slow to 2.9% in 2027.

Rating prospects

A slower increase of general government debt/GDP, for example due to reduction of fiscal

deficits or resilient economic growth could lead to a revision of the Outlook to Stable.

A downgrade could occur in the event of failure to reduce fiscal deficits for example due to lack of consolidation measures, pre-election fiscal easing, lower growth or a significant increase in government financing costs. Also materially lower medium-term growth prospects, for example due to an erosion in competitiveness or weaker external environment.