• On 22 July 2022 rating agency Fitch announced a decision about keeping Poland’s credit rating unchanged at the level of A-/F1 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in foreign currency and A-/F1 for long and short term liabilities in local currency.
• Rating’s outlook remained at a stable level.

Fitch rating agency in its press release justifying the decision indicates a diversified economy and
a record of stable growth in recent years and a relatively sound macroeconomic framework and lower public debt levels than rated peers. The stable outlook reflects the Polish economy’s solid growth prospects, high resilience to the external shocks and rising macroeconomic challenges. The Polish economy growth is set to 5.5% in 2022 and average 2.3% in 2023-2024 due to the risk of weaker growth in key trading partners as a result of an energy sector shock and failure to obtain disbursements from RRP.

Rating prospects

According to the agency, Poland’s rating could be raised as a result of an improvement in external finances, including a convergence in net external debt/GDP with rated peers or fiscal consolidation over the medium term that leads to a sustained decline in government debt/GDP.

Additionally, rating could be higher as a result of sustained GDP growth leading to faster income convergence towards the 'A' category median, supported by macroeconomic policies.

On the other hand, rating could be lowered in case of sustained increase in government debt, for example, from a looser fiscal stance, crystallisation of contingent liabilities or weakening of economic growth over the medium term. Rating could be also lower in case of large adverse macroeconomic shock i.e. due to energy rationing Europe or in case of inflation remaining at high levels.