• On 13 January 2023 rating agency Fitch announced a decision about keeping Poland’s credit rating unchanged at the level of A-/F1 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in foreign currency and A-/F1 for long and short term liabilities in local currency.
• Rating’s outlook remained at a stable level.

Fitch rating agency in its press release justifying the decision indicates a diversified economy and a record of stable growth in recent years and a relatively sound macroeconomic framework and lower public debt levels than rated peers. The stable outlook reflects the agency’s expectation that the Polish economy will remain resilient to external shocks and macro-economic challenges, due in part to a commitment to and track record of solid fiscal performance and an improved external balance sheet.

Fitch forecasts GDP growth to fall from an estimated 5.7% in 2022 to 1.1% in 2023, as economic activity in Poland's main trade partners and domestic demand slow.

Agency expects the economy to recover in 2024, expanding by 2.6%.

Poland´s successful efforts at diversifying from Russian energy mean that the risks of gas or coal supply disruptions for this and next winter are relatively low.

Rating prospects

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:

Public Finances: Fiscal consolidation over the medium term that leads to a firm decline in government debt/GDP

Macro: Evidence of higher sustained GDP growth prospects leading to faster income convergence towards the 'A' category median, supported by policies that do not lead to macro or external imbalances

On the other hand, rating could be lowered in case of sustained increase in government debt, for example, from a looser fiscal stance, erosion in competitiveness, potentially stemming from inflation entrenched at high levels and/or persistently higher energy prices, leading to materially lower medium-term growth and a sustained deterioration in external finances. Rating could be also lower in case of sizable deterioration in governance, potentially further weakening EU relations and/or damaging macro-fiscal policy credibility.