• On 20 March 2026 rating agency Moody’s published press release, which announced completion of a periodic review of rating.

Publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future

Due to Moody’s Poland’s high economic strength – supported by trend real GDP growth of nearly 3% and ongoing income convergence toward the EU average – together with its still moderate public debt burden and robust debt-affordability metrics, underpin its credit profile.

Moody’s expect Poland’s real GDP growth to remain strong in 2026 at 3.7%, up from our earlier forecast of 3.2%. Growth will likely ease to 3% in 2027 – as the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) funding ends and consumption slows.

The negative outlook signals that the A2 ratings are unlikely to be upgraded in the near term. The outlook will likely return to stable if Poland demonstrates a credible fiscal consolidation path, materially slowing the increase in the government debt burden and leading to a much slower weakening of debt affordability metrics.

Poland's A2 ratings would likely be downgraded if the public debt burden rises and debt affordability weakens substantially. A significant deterioration in regional security, including more concrete signals of withdrawal of US support, would put downward pressure on Poland's ratings.