• On 19 September 2025 rating agency Moody’s announced a decision about keeping Poland’s credit rating unchanged at the level of A2/P-1 for long and short term liabilities, respectively.
• Rating’s outlook changed to negative from stable.

Moody’s rating agency in its press release justifying the decision of affirming Poland’s credit rating by citing Poland’s high economic strength, with trend real GDP growth of almost 3% and ongoing income convergence towards the EU average. Moreover, Poland’s credit profile benefits from a still moderate public debt burden in combination with robust debt affordability metrics. Poland’s A2 ratings also take into account elevated geopolitical risks in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Moody’s decision to change the outlook to negative reflects a weaker outlook for fiscal and debt metrics compared to their earlier expectations. They forecast materially wider general government fiscal deficits, and a delay in the gradual fiscal consolidation beginning in 2026. Downside risks occur primarily due to the standoff between the government and the President, and the likelihood of increased government spending ahead of the 2027 parliamentary election and beyond. Updated higher general government budget deficit forecast include elevated social spending pressures amid fast population ageing, rising public sector wages, increased interest payments and sustained defence spending.

Rating prospects

According to the agency the outlook will likely return to stable if Poland demonstrates a credible fiscal consolidation path, materially slowing the increase in the government debt burden and leading to a very gradual weakening of debt affordability metrics.  However Poland's A2 ratings would likely be downgraded if the public debt burden rises and debt affordability weakens substantially. This would happen if the government is unable to contain or offset spending pressure in the next few years. Additionally a significant deterioration in regional security would put downward pressure on Poland’s ratings.