In order to ensure the highest quality of our services, we use small files called cookies. When using our website, the cookie files are downloaded onto your device. You can change the settings of your browser at any time. In addition, your use of our website is tantamount to your consent to the processing of your personal data provided by electronic means.
Back

No 31-2019, I. Guceri, M. Albinowski: Investment Responses to Tax Policy under Uncertainty

 

How does economic uncertainty affect the impact of tax policy? To answer this question, we exploit a unique natural experiment, in which two very similar investment subsidies were implemented in the same country, two years apart: once during a period of economic stability, and once during a period of very high uncertainty. The experiment features sharp discontinuities in firm eligibility, and we conduct our analysis using tax returns (corporate and VAT) and trade data for the universe of corporations. We find that, under low uncertainty, tax incentives have strong positive effects on investment, both on the extensive and intensive margins. This aligns with the findings in several recent empirical papers. Under high uncertainty, however, the story is very different: the effect at the intensive margin is still present, but the effect at the extensive margin disappears. Together, these results suggest that: (1) some firms “wait and see" during periods of high uncertainty, even in the presence of generous incentives; and (2) periods of stability offer an important policy opportunity to encourage investment. JEL: H25, D25, C21

 

Materials

MF Working Papers No 31-2019
MF​_WP​_No​_31-2019​_M​_Albinowski.pdf 2.84MB
Information on the publication of the document
Last updated on:
12.06.2019 10:17 Paulina Gronek
First published on:
12.04.2019 10:52 Paulina Gronek
{"register":{"columns":[]}}