The introduction of the Family 500+ program significantly increased the disposable income of households with children, potentially affecting their consumption patterns. We estimate cohort-specific VEC and STR models based on adjusted Household Budget Survey, to assess short- and medium-term changes in income elasticities and interest rate semi-elasticities across four household types defined by the number of adults and children. The analysis focuses on behavioral responses before and after major expansions of social assistance, capturing potential regime shifts in consumption. The findings underscore the importance of household heterogeneity in assessing the macroeconomic impact of large-scale social transfers.

The results reveal that only the lowest-income, single-parent households exhibited a significant increase in income elasticity of consumption, rising from 1.03 to 1.19 after the program’s implementation. The response in other groups was moderate (families with three or more children) or marginal (families with one or two children). This highlights that despite the large scale of the program, it did not lead to an overall boost in consumption among those who benefited from it. In addition, the analysis identifies divergent changes in interest rate sensitivity across household types, with a decline observed among lower-income families with three or more children, and a rise among higher-income groups. These patterns may reflect changes in credit access or substitution between debt-financed and transfer-financed consumption.