• On 7 November 2025 rating agency S&P announced a decision about keeping Poland’s credit rating unchanged at the level of A-/A-2 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in foreign currency, and A/A-1 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in local currency.
• Rating’s outlook is stable.

Agency expect Poland’s economy to expand by 3.3% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. Poland’s economic diversification mitigates external headwinds in the current environment, together with Poland’s considerable market size. Agency project Poland’s net general government debt will surge to 67% of GDP by 2028, from 48% in 2024.

On top of wide fiscal deficits of over 6% on average over 2025-2028, sizable stock and flow adjustments related to military purchases and borrowing from EU facilities add to the debt increase.

S&P project Poland’s general government deficit to widen to almost 7% of GDP this year. For 2026, agency expect the general government deficit to slightly reduce to 6.5% of GDP. To tackle the deteriorating fiscal performance, the government has proposed several revenue measures for the 2026 budget.

According to S&P Poland’s political impasse continues following this summer’s presidential elections. The president has significant powers in Poland's mixed presidential-parliamentary system, including a substantial veto over government legislation which will complicate fiscal consolidation efforts, in our view.

Rating prospects

According to the agency, the rating could be raised if fiscal deficits reduce to significantly lower levels, putting the government’s debt levels on a downward path. A sustained track record of institutional and governance improvements, ensuring fiscal prudency and preserving the flow of EU funds and net foreign direct investment (FDI), could also be positive for the ratings.

On the other hand, agency could lower the ratings on Poland if its medium-term growth prospects deteriorated significantly, possibly coupled with rising macroeconomic imbalances or renewed external shocks, including unexpected spillovers from the Russia-Ukraine war. S&P also could lower the ratings if the war escalated, weighing more heavily on Poland’s public finances, economic growth, and presenting additional security risks.