• On 8 May 2026 rating agency S&P announced a decision about keeping Poland’s credit rating unchanged at the level of A-/A-2 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in foreign currency, and A/A-1 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in local currency.
• Rating’s outlook is stable.

Due to S&P Poland’s economy continues to grow steadily, supported by strong EU-funded investments and resilient domestic demand, with GDP expected to increase by 3.3% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027. Despite external risks, including geopolitical tensions and weaker demand from the eurozone, the country has maintained one of the fastest per capita GDP growth rates among developed economies. Inflation risks remain elevated due to potentially higher global energy prices linked to conflicts in the Middle East, which could also slow economic growth if the situation worsens. At the same time, Poland’s public finances are under pressure, as net government debt is projected to approach 70% of GDP by 2029, driven by high defense and social spending. Fiscal deficits have widened significantly, reaching 7.3% of GDP in 2025, and are expected to remain high over the next two years. Poland's recent resilience to external pressures reflects the high savings rate, a diversified economy, flexible labor and product markets, educated workforce, and access to ample nondebt- creating external funding.

S&P emphasizes that the polarized political landscape and upcoming 2027 parliamentary elections will continue to hamper effective fiscal and institutional policymaking.

Rating prospects

According to the agency, The ratings could improve if the government successfully reduced large fiscal deficits and stabilized the growth of public debt. Continued progress in institutional reforms, responsible fiscal management, and maintaining strong inflows of EU funds and foreign direct investment could also support a higher rating.

On the other hand, the ratings could be downgraded if Poland’s medium-term economic growth weakened considerably due to growing macroeconomic imbalances or stronger external shocks linked to geopolitical tensions. A further escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war could also negatively affect public finances, slow economic growth, and increase security-related risks for the country.