• On 8 November 2024 rating agency S&P announced a decision about keeping Poland’s credit rating unchanged at the level of A-/A-2 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in foreign currency, and A/A-1 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in local currency.
• Rating’s outlook is stable.

Agency expects Poland's  large, diversified, and open economy to expand an average of 3% over 2024-2027. The Polish government has unblocked EU cohesion and Recovery and Resilience Funds (RRF), marking the end of the long-standing rule-of-law dispute with the European Commission. Domestic demand is recovering, which supports a favorable growth outlook Agency expect Poland's general government deficit to decrease gradually, to 4.2% of GDP by 2027 from 5.7% in 2024.

The stable outlook reflects the balance between Poland's favorable medium-term growth prospectsagainst the near-term risks it faces elevated fiscal deficits and rapidly rising debt, amid increasing external risks to its economy.

Rating prospects

According to the agency, the rating could be raised if a sustained track record of institutional and governance improvements also help preserve the flow of EU funds and net foreign direct investment supporting Poland's medium-term growth prospects.

On the other hand, agency could lower the ratings if debt increased beyond our projections, which could indicate a more permanent deterioration in fiscal policy management. We could also lower the ratings if Poland's medium-term growth prospects deteriorated significantly, possibly coupled with renewed external shocks, including unexpected spillovers from and reduced confidence linked to the Russia-Ukraine war.